Economic comparison of different scenarios of electrification of heating in buildings by 2050

Artelys was commissioned by GRDF to analyze the technical and economic implications of 4 heating equipment mixes in the French building sector by 2050. To this end, the energy supply systems associated with 4 scenarios for the evolution of heating and hot water equipment in France in the residential and tertiary sectors were modeled using the Artelys Crystal Super Grid software. These scenarios, all of which are compatible with the national carbon neutrality objectives, are differentiated by their rate of electrification of heating equipment and their level of national biogas consumption, within the limits of available sources. For each scenario, the hourly operation of energy production, storage and transport systems was simulated. The study underlines that a stronger electrification of building heating leads to a reduction of final energy consumption due to the high efficiency of heat pumps. However, an overall economic assessment reveals that the savings on the energy supply system do not compensate for the additional cost of equipment such as electric heat pumps. Thus, the scenarios which present a partial maintenance of direct gas use in the heating of the building appear to be economically relevant